Classrooms go nearly empty during private school exam season,

A colleague with a sixth grader said with a sigh. Some parents keep their kids home, thinking regular classes aren't helpful for entrance exams.Empty classrooms? Isn't that strange? I looked into the data to understand what's behind this trend.

As a starting point, I looked into application trends in the Tokyo metropolitan area. Despite a shrinking child population, applications to private junior high schools have held steady—or even increased. Today, 18% of elementary school graduates apply to private schools, nearly one in five.

The level of exam pressure varies significantly by area. In central Tokyo areas like Chiyoda and Minato wards, nearly 50% of students take entrance exams. In many suburban areas, the rate is closer to 10%.

There is a clear correlation between entrance exam rates and household income: children from higher-income families are more likely to take private school entrance exams.

The growing popularity of private schools reflects the academic pressures of Japanese society.

In the Tokyo metropolitan area, many private schools offer combined middle and high school programs.Looking at the high schools that send the most students to the University of Tokyo — Japan's top university — private schools far outnumber public ones.

Some urban parents keep their children out of elementary school classes so they can prepare for private junior high school entrance exams — aiming for schools with stronger records of sending students to top universities.

The Burden of Education and Japan's Declining Birthrate

The problem is that income inequality is leading directly to educational inequality. According to the Ministry of Education, attending a private school costs nearly three times as much as a public one.For many families, the cost of attending a top-performing private junior high school is simply out of reach.

While many urban parents are eager to send their children to private schools, financial concerns are causing some households to forgo having children altogether. In a survey by the Nippon Foundation, nearly 40% of respondents cited "the high cost of education" as a reason for not having children.

Japan is facing a sharp and sustained decline in its birthrate. The number of births has dropped to about one-third of its peak in the 1970s.

Japan now has a smaller share of children in its population than China — despite China's long-standing one-child policy.This decline in the younger population is having a negative impact not only in terms of labor shortages, but also through rising social security costs for working households.

I have two children myself, and there may come a time when I'll have to seriously consider private school entrance exams for them. When I think about the cost of education, I hesitate to have a third child.

I hope for a society where people can choose to have children without worrying so much about the financial burden.Creating that kind of environment might be one way to help stem the decline in the birthrate.